Should we Shelter in Place, Hopeful Social Distancing, or Do Nothing?
I believe we need to call for a state-wide policy of Shelter in Place.
Many people have shared information with me and I am sharing it further here. If you see it here, then you know I have seen it, and thank you!
My primary sources of information are the Johns Hopkins website, CDC, WHO, and AZ Department of Health Services, ADHS.
For links to those websites, See this page: COVID-19 Resources click here.
The following resources are shaping my position favoring more actively stopping the spread. #FlattenTheCurve
1. COVID ACT NOW .org
Projections by State - AZ should implement "Shelter in Place" between May 4 and May 9th. *or sooner
With current "Social Distancing" policies, by June 7th we'll need over 63,000 hospital beds but we'll have under 10,000.
My Take: Yes. But we may need to "Shelter in Place" much sooner. I am concerned because the graphs in this website are based on incomplete data from Arizona. We need to heed these warnings and plan for more hospitalizations. However, Arizona only just started reporting the number of tests done by private labs March 25th.
Arizona is still not testing many, many people who probably do have COVID-19. Doctors are being told to ration the tests so that Arizona has them for those who are the most sick. Those with the basic symptoms, but not severe symptoms are being sent home to self-quarantine, without being tested.
Those cases that have been sent home might or might not be included in this modeling. I'm waiting to hear from Kreiss-Tomkins.
Credibility: Based on the email I received from Alaska Legislator, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, March 20th, his team of epidemiologists and data scientists developed models used for Alaska. They expanded the models for all 50 states and published it on the Covid Act Now website. The endorsements are largely from politicians. A friend of mine who is a physics professor at ASU tells me that the math behind the website is valid.
The model in the CovidActNow.org website (above) uses research in this report.
It studies 2 options to reduce the impacts of COVID-19.
1- Mitigation: Quarantine those who are most vulnerable to the disease, and practice social distancing in an informal approach.
2- Suppression: Quarantine those who are most vulnerable and all positive cases; Close schools and social distancing applies to everybody except vitally-needed services such as healthcare workers. (Gov. Ducey's list of "essential businesses" includes those that he thinks can operate safely and keep at safe distances. )
|Mitigation = informal social distancing||Suppression =
"Shelter in Place"
|Arizona deaths -just from COVID19||98,000||1,000|
|People infected in Arizona||65%||< 1%|
Let's flip the script on COVID-19 and build fantastic things!
This graph tracks the number of cases in Arizona per population, so that it can be compared to other states.
Keep in mind that Arizona is not testing nearly as many people as other states, so it's still not an apples to apples comparison, but it's something.