Should we Shelter in Place, Hopeful Social Distancing, or Do Nothing?
I believe we need to call for a state-wide policy of Shelter in Place. -- as of April 10, 2020 updated.
*** April 24th update: Hair salons have been closed by Gov. Ducey's Executive Order, and this "Stay Home" method is proving to be an effective form of "Shelter in Place." Our hospitals are at about 78% capacity for in-patient beds; they are not overwhelmed. Thank you from the bottom of my heart to all essential workers.
Gov. Ducey's Executive Order, in early April used the slogan, "Stay home; stay healthy; stay connected." Click for details.
Schools will stay closed for the rest of this school year. The order urges people to stay home except for essential services. The list of essential services is broad, and apparently seems to include hair salons and nail salons. I do not see the reason for that. The list of businesses that are "essential" includes golf courses, too. There is value in physical exercise, which can be found on a golf course, but at least one golf employee has shared his concerns about workers' safety there.
Do the right thing. Stay home. Get along without a haircut or a manicure for a while. Every time one person interacts with another it is an opportunity for the disease to spread, and this disease is highly contagious, very painful, and deadly. People of all ages have died from COVID-19.
If the "Stay Home" policy is hard on you financially, click here for many supports from federal and state governments. If those are not enough, and you want to tell me about your situation, please do. Call my office, 602-926-4870.
WHY SHOULD WE STAY AT HOME? ...
WHY SHOULD WE STAY AT HOME?
Many people have shared information with me and I am sharing it further here. If you see it here, then you know I have seen it, and thank you!
My primary sources of information are the Johns Hopkins website, CDC, WHO, and AZ Department of Health Services, ADHS.
For links to those websites, See this page: COVID-19 Resources click here.
The following resources are shaping my position favoring more actively stopping the spread. #FlattenTheCurve
1. COVID ACT NOW .org Click for latest update
Projections by State - With poor compliance, Arizona's hospitals could be overloaded by May 2nd. *or sooner
With current "Social Distancing" policies, by May 26th we'll need over 63,000 hospital beds but we'll have under 10,000.
My Take: We must comply with the "Stay at Home" policy. I am concerned because the graphs in this website are based on incomplete data from Arizona. Arizona only just started reporting the number of tests done by private labs March 25th. We need to heed these warnings and plan for more hospitalizations.
Arizona is still not testing many, many people who probably do have COVID-19. Doctors are being told to ration the tests so that Arizona has them for those who are the most sick. Those with the basic symptoms, but not severe symptoms are being sent home to self-quarantine, without being tested.
Those cases that have been sent home might or might not be included in this modeling. I'm waiting to hear from Kreiss-Tomkins.
Credibility: Based on the email I received from Alaska Legislator, Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, March 20th, his team of epidemiologists and data scientists developed models used for Alaska. They expanded the models for all 50 states and published it on the Covid Act Now website. The endorsements are largely from politicians. A friend of mine who is a physics professor at ASU tells me that the math behind the website is valid.
2. IHME data reported by NPR
Click here for a report about state by state projections of the COVID-19 Peak.
The model in the CovidActNow.org website (above) uses research in this report.
It studies 2 options to reduce the impacts of COVID-19.
1- Mitigation: Quarantine those who are most vulnerable to the disease, and practice social distancing in an informal approach.
2- Suppression: Quarantine those who are most vulnerable and all positive cases; Close schools and social distancing applies to everybody except vitally-needed services such as healthcare workers. (Gov. Ducey's list of "essential businesses" includes those that he thinks can operate safely and keep at safe distances. )
|Mitigation = informal social distancing||Suppression =
"Shelter in Place"
|Arizona deaths -just from COVID19||98,000||1,000|
|People infected in Arizona||65%||< 1%|
Let's flip the script on COVID-19 and build fantastic things!
This graph tracks the number of cases in Arizona per population, so that it can be compared to other states.
Keep in mind that Arizona is not testing nearly as many people as other states, so it's still not an apples to apples comparison, but it's something.
5. Daily Average Counts for Cause of Death
CLick for graph of the top 15 causes of Death in the US, including COVID-19.
Keep in mind, the deaths in this graphic are:
for the top 15 causes : total deaths in a year / number of days in a year
For COVID-19 : Deaths in the most recent actual day.
As of April 10, 2020, CNN reported the USA has had 18,637 deaths from COVID-19.